Rubicon Bay, California, West Shore, Lake Tahoe, Real Estate Market Report –Year End Review 2011

Rubicon Bay, California, West Shore, Lake Tahoe, Real Estate Market Report –Year End Review 2011

The Rubicon Bay, California area starts approximately 11 miles south of the “Y” in Tahoe City on the West Shore of Lake Tahoe.

The Rubicon Bay area is a small, West Shore, Lake Tahoe community that is next to the Meeks Bay, which is just south of Tahoma, California. This neighborhood is known for their lakefront homes with their sandy white beaches and the amazing colors that Lake Tahoe is known for.

The Rubicon Bay neighborhood is a mix of smaller, older, Tahoe cabins that are used just in the summer, along with larger, newer luxury mountain homes. This area has both lake-side and mountain-side subdivisions, with 369 parcels in the Rubicon Bay area.

One reason this area is so desirable is the larger number of non-lakefront, lakeside (homes located on the lakeside of California Highway 89 South) mountain homes and cabins. A lakeside location means owners are short walk, or bike ride to the beach without having to cross the highway.

The upside for mountain homes and cabins on the mountain-side subdivisions are the stunning views of Rubicon Bay in Lake Tahoe.

Most Rubicon properties that are not lakefronts do have access to one of the private home owner associations. This means they have access to Lake Tahoe beaches, shared pier use, and a buoy rental options are available for home owners in this area.

The Rubicon Bay neighborhood does have some full-time, year-around residents, which means access is available during the winter months. Rubicon Bay is an area that is dominated by vacation-resort, second home owners and is a great place to get away from it all.

Sold Single Family Homes in the Rubicon Bay, California neighborhood West Shore, Lake Tahoe:

In the Rubicon Bay area, mountain home and cabin prices averaged $640,000, which is an increase of +34% over 2010, but still down -35% from 2009. This may suggest some market stabilization, but with 27% of the homes offered for sale right now in Rubicon Bay being a short-sale (distressed sellers), we may see the prices in the area decline more.

Cash sale transactions for the Rubicon Bay area are close to the regional average of 35% at 33%. The balance of the homes sold were a combination conventional loans (3 sales) and seller financing (1 sale). As a side note, seller financing is still very rare for our area.

The current absorption rate for this neighborhood is at 11 months. Anything above 7 months of inventory is considered a Buyer’s Market. The first step to turning a neighborhood around from a declining market is to balance the inventory.

There was one court approval sale, no bank foreclosures – real estate owned (REO’s), or short sales in 2011, which is an improvement over 2010, where 40% of all homes and cabins sold were REO sales in this neighborhood.

There were 11 Active – available homes, cabins, and lakefronts for sale in the Rubicon Bay, California, West Shore, Lake Tahoe, area as of 02/05/2011. They ranged in price from $550,000 to $4.2 million. Of the 11 homes offered for sale, 4 are lakefront properties. None of the active listings are REO’s, but 3 are short sale listings, or 27% of the homes offered for sale in Rubicon Bay are currently distressed seller situations.

There is 1 pending sale in the Rubicon Bay, California area as of 02/05/2012 and it was listed at a price of $285,000. Originally this home started with a listed price of $389,000, so it’s had a -27% price reduction before going into escrow. This sale is not an REO, or short sale property, but gives buyers an idea that sellers have become serious and are pricing to sell.

Rubicon Bay, California West Shore, Lake Tahoe, California, Real Estate Summary

Sold Single Family Homes

Year	Homes Sold	Median Average Sales Price	Lowest Price Sold	Highest Price Sold	% Cash Transactions	Absorption Rate < 5 months Sellers Mkt 5-7 months balanced >7 months Buyers’ Mkt	% Distressed Sales	Breakdown of distressed Sales
2011*	6	$645,000	$360,000	$842,500 0 Lakefronts	33%	11 Months Buyers’ Mkt	17%	0 REO’s 0 Short Sales 1 Court Approval
2010	5	$480,000	$392,000	$7,870,000 1 Lakefronts	40%	NA	40%	2 REO’s 0 Short Sales
2009	7	$995,000	$499,000	$3,675,000 2 Lakefronts	43%	NA	14%	0 REO 1 Short Sales
2008	8	$1,350,000	$725,000	$8,625,000 2 Lakefronts	38%	NA	0%	0 REO 0 Short Sales
2007	5	$2,000,000	$865,000	$3,750,000 2 Lakefronts	40%	NA	0%	0 REO 0 Short Sales
2006	3	$970,000	$899,000	$3,550,000 1 Lakefronts	0%	NA	0%	0 REO 0 Short Sales

*YTD period is 01/01/2011 – 12/31/2011. Data Source: Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service.

Use caution when only a handful of sales are available in a neighborhood. The increase and decrease in the percent changes can be significant. When reviewing neighborhood data, I recommend reviewing the overall Lake Tahoe, California area, and/or the entire Lake Tahoe – Truckee Region to confirm market trends and direction, rather than relying on just a small group of neighborhood sales.

Note: Year-to-date summaries are based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors (TSMLS). Due to TSMLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate. Therefore, Laura Allen, or Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage does not guarantee the data’s accuracy. Data maintained by the TMLS’s may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. All information is deemed to be reliable, but is subject to change and/or correction without prior notice. Data Source – Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service (TSMLS). If your property is currently listed for sale, or you have an active Buyer Representation Agreement, this is not intended as a solicitation.

Thinking about making the Meeks Bay area your second home? Here are the homes for sale in Meeks Bay:

For all of your Tahoe real estate needs –

Laura A. Allen | 530.414.1260 | Laura@TahoeLaura.com
BROKER ASSOCIATE, Tahoe Real Estate Agent
CalRE# 01473598
Coldwell Banker, Tahoe City, CA CalRE#01908304

All information is deemed reliable, but is subject to change, and/or correction without notice.

Rubicon Bay, California, West Shore, Lake Tahoe, Real Estate Market Report –Year End Review 2011